Will “Cartel” be said at the next White House press briefing?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Cartel” was said at the White House press briefing on 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 22, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 23, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.

42%from settlement history only · n=4counts: named speaker only
Last 10
2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only

BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy

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Where it was said

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White House press briefing

Cartel

Probability
42% · n=4
Settled
2/4 (50%)
Last 8 press briefings
said in 0 of 2 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Katie Zacharia say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing? · not listed

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What will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say in the next press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say in the next press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will Dr. Oz say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will the Press Secretary say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 4 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 23, 2025CartelPolymarketYes1
Oct 4, 2025CartelKalshiYes1
Oct 1, 2025CartelKalshiNo0
Sep 22, 2025CartelKalshiNo0

Questions

How often is “Cartel” said at the White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Cartel” was said at the White House press briefing on 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 22, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 23, 2025.
What is the probability “Cartel” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
42%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Cartel’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/cartel (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=cartel · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP