Will “Shutdown / Shut Down” be said 10+ times at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Shutdown / Shut Down” was said 10+ times at the White House press briefing on 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 23, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 23, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (10+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Shutdown / Shut Down 10+ times
- Probability
- 39% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 0 of 2 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…him following up with action to say that, if you're going to shut down an American factory and put an American worker out of a…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…we would have hoped, but that's because of the Democrats decision to shut down DHS for several weeks. So we expect to fully execute on…
…you could provide a little more detail on what you're doing to shut down Iran's airlines. And also, on sanctions relief, a senior administration official…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down 10+ times |  Polymarket | No | 3 |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down 10+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 11 |
Questions
- How often is “Shutdown / Shut Down 10+ times” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Shutdown / Shut Down” was said 10+ times at the White House press briefing on 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 23, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 23, 2025.
- What is the probability “Shutdown / Shut Down 10+ times” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Shutdown / Shut Down 10+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/shut-down-or-shutdown-10plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown%20%2810%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP