Scott Bessent: Interview, Jun 24, 2026
Kalshi What will Scott Bessent say during CNBC: Squawk Box?
Markets
13 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China / Chinese | Yes | 62%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 59%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Warsh / Fed | Yes | 55%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 54%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Japan | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 30%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hormuz | No | 47%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Pulte | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock Market | No | 38%n=17 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBESSENTMTPMENTION-26JUN24 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP