Scott Bessent: Episode, Dec 8, 2025
Kalshi What will Scott Bessent say during Face the Nation?
Markets
12 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 61%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 61%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fed | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Manufacturing | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Innovation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| National Security | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tax Cut | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Recession | No | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBESSENTMTPMENTION-25DEC08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP