Scott Bessent: Keynote, Oct 16, 2025
Kalshi What will Scott Bessent say during CNBC Invest in America Forum?
Markets
14 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Deficit | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fed Chair | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rate | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stake | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Argentina | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recession | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Powell | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBESSENTMTPMENTION-25OCT16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP