Scott Bessent: Episode, Oct 18, 2026
Kalshi What will Scott Bessent say during Meet the Press?
Markets
19 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 65%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 59%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 56%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Fed / Federal Reserve / Warsh | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation / Inflationary | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Account | No | 69%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 65%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| GDP | No | 48%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Balance Sheet | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dividend / Stimulus | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| IMF / World Bank | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax Cut / Cut Tax | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Buyback / Buy Back | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 37%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Debt / Deficit | No | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 34%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency | No | 32%n=12 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBESSENTMTPMENTION-26OCT18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP