Scott Bessent: Episode, Mar 22, 2026
Kalshi What will Scott Bessent say during Meet the Press?
Markets
11 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hormuz | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | Yes | 52%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 60%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| GDP | No | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 45%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Venezuela / Cuba | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBESSENTMTPMENTION-26MAR22B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP