Scott Bessent: Keynote, Jan 21, 2026
Kalshi What will Scott Bessent say during his remarks at WEF?
Markets
16 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 68%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 61%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 57%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fed | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| GDP | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Innovation | Yes | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | Yes | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Recession | Yes | 26%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Middle Class | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Stablecoin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tax Cut | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBESSENTMTPMENTION-26JAN21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP