Scott Bessent: Keynote, Apr 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Scott Bessent say during CNBC Invest in America Forum?
Markets
15 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hormuz | Yes | 62%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 59%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 58%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fed / Federal Reserve | Yes | 56%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Deregulation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Main Street | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| GDP | Yes | 45%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tax Cut | Yes | 28%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 27%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Deficit | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 41%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBESSENTMTPMENTION-26APR15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP