Scott Bessent: Hearing, Jun 4, 2026
Kalshi What will Scott Bessent say during his Committee on Ways & Means hearing?
Markets
18 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | Yes | 78%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 74%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 72%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Account | Yes | 70%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 67%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 63%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 60%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 57%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| GDP | Yes | 54%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wall Street | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Warsh | No | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economic Fury | No | 50%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | No | 46%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 40%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 33%n=12 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBESSENTMTPMENTION-26JUN04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP