Scott Bessent: Hearing, Apr 22, 2026
Kalshi What will Scott Bessent say during Dept of the Treasury Budget Hearing?
Markets
15 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed / Federal Reserve | Yes | 62%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | Yes | 44%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Productivity | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 62%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Main Street | No | 62%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 60%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Deregulation | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| National Debt | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| GDP | No | 45%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Deficit | No | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 33%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBESSENTMTPMENTION-26APR22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP