Scott Bessent: Interview, Sep 23, 2026
Kalshi What will Scott Bessent say during Special Report with Bret Baier?
Markets
17 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation / Inflationary | Yes | 67%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | Yes | 64%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 62%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 62%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 57%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Fed / Federal Reserve / Warsh | Yes | 57%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 53%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 34%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 69%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 59%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| GDP | No | 54%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tax Cut / Cut Tax | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Buyback / Buy Back | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock Market | No | 34%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency | No | 33%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBESSENTMTPMENTION-26SEP23 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP