Scott Bessent: Speech, Sep 10, 2026
Kalshi What will Scott Bessent say during RNC Midterm Convention?
Markets
18 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 73%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 71%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Account | Yes | 69%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 68%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | Yes | 62%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 60%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| GDP | Yes | 53%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Tax Cut / Cut Tax | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 72%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 64%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 59%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Productivity | No | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 39%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency | No | 38%n=10 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBESSENTMTPMENTION-26SEP10 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP