Scott Bessent: Interview, May 14, 2026
Kalshi What will Scott Bessent say during CNBC: Squawk Box?
Markets
15 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 44%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 21%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 55%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Main Street | No | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tax Cut | No | 39%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Semiconductor / Chip | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Yen | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock Market | No | 37%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Economic Fury | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBESSENTMTPMENTION-26MAY14B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP