Gavin Newsom: Remarks, Mar 3, 2026
Kalshi What will Gavin Newsom say during his announcement on homelessness?
Markets
16 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 66%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | 65%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Housing | Yes | 61%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | Yes | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Encampment | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Treat / Treatment | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 19%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | No | 53%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / Border | No | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Budget / Deficit | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Constitutional / Unconstitutional | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Veteran | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 28%n=10 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNEWSOMMENTION-26MAR03 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP