Gavin Newsom: Panel, Nov 12, 2025
Kalshi What will Gavin Newsom say during his fireside chat at COP30?
Markets
15 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Climate Change | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fossil Fuel | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pollution / Pollute | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| President / Campaign | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Carbon Credit | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Clean Energy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| EV | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fire | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Solar | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Water | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wind | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNEWSOMMENTION-25NOV12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP