Gavin Newsom: Panel, Feb 23, 2026
Kalshi What will Gavin Newsom say during his book tour discussion?
Markets
14 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 66%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | Yes | 53%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Homeless / Homelessness | Yes | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / Border | Yes | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Podcast | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| San Francisco | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fire / Wildfire | Yes | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 20%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Childhood | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Same Sex | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kalshi | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Healthcare | No | 33%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNEWSOMMENTION-26FEB23 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP