Gavin Newsom: Remarks, Feb 21, 2026
Kalshi What will Gavin Newsom say during his San Quentin announcement?
Markets
12 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 64%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mental Health | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crime / Criminal | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Death Row | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Homeless / Homelessness | No | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / Border | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democracy | No | 59%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Education | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kalshi | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 20%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNEWSOMMENTION-26FEB21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP