Gavin Newsom: Remarks, Feb 11, 2026
Kalshi What will Newsom say during his announcement?
Markets
15 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home / Housing | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Homeless / Homelessness | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | Yes | 51%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Bad Bunny | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mental Health | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | 68%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | No | 61%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Budget / Deficit | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Insurance | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Scholarship | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 25%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNEWSOMMENTION-26FEB11 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP