Gavin Newsom: Interview, Jan 6, 2026
Kalshi What will Gavin Newsom say during his interview on The Weeknight?
Markets
14 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economy / Economic | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Maduro / Venezuela | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Palisades | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Climate Change | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Clean Energy / Green | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Healthcare | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNEWSOMMENTION-26JAN06 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP