Gavin Newsom: Speech, Jan 9, 2026
Kalshi What will Gavin Newsom say during his State of the State Address?
Markets
12 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 52%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | Yes | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Homeless / Homelessness | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Clean Energy | Yes | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fire / Wildfire / Palisades | Yes | 20%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Maduro / Oil | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNEWSOMMENTION-26JAN09 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP