Gavin Newsom: Remarks, Apr 22, 2026
Kalshi What will Gavin Newsom say during his Earth Day announcement?
Markets
13 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 68%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | Yes | 45%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | Yes | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Pollute / Polluted / Pollution | No | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Rural | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sustainable / Sustainability | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy | No | 41%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Wildfire | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 34%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordability / Affordable | No | 33%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 30%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 27%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNEWSOMMENTION-26APR22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP