Gavin Newsom: Panel, Feb 25, 2026
Kalshi What will Gavin Newsom say during his book tour discussion?
Markets
15 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | No | 70%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Homeless / Homelessness | No | 59%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | No | 59%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Fire / Wildfire | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Podcast | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| San Francisco | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE / Border | No | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Dyslexia | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SAT | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Childhood | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Climate | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Same Sex | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 33%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 30%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 24%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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