Gavin Newsom: Remarks, Mar 11, 2026
Kalshi What will Gavin Newsom say during his behavioral health announcement?
Markets
15 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | 70%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 68%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Health | Yes | 65%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Homeless / Homelessness | Yes | 50%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Federal | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Budget / Deficit | Yes | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 25%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 61%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | No | 59%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | No | 48%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / Border | No | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 30%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMENTION-NEWS26MAR11 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP