Gavin Newsom: Keynote, Dec 4, 2025
Kalshi What will Gavin Newsom say during the NYT DealBook Summit?
Markets
18 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Campaign | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democracy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pollution / Pollute | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 2028 | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crisis | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Texas | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| EV | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Climate Change | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Brazil / Amazon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wildfire | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Solar | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Clean Energy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNEWSOMMENTION-25DEC04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP