Gavin Newsom: Remarks, Feb 20, 2026
Kalshi What will Gavin Newsom say during his announcement?
Markets
12 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 58%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / Border | Yes | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | Yes | 52%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Light Rail / Train | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Traffic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Climate / Emission | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Budget / Deficit | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| BRT / Rapid Transit | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Commute / Commuter | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 21%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNEWSOMMENTION-26FEB20 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP