Gavin Newsom: Press conference, Apr 2, 2026
Kalshi What will Gavin Newsom say during his press conference?
Markets
15 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | No | 70%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Health | No | 68%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | No | 66%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 56%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | No | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Budget / Deficit | No | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | No | 46%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | No | 40%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Education | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 31%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNEWSOMMENTION-26APR02 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP