Gavin Newsom: Remarks, May 27, 2026
Kalshi What will Gavin Newsom say during his CA election announcement?
Markets
14 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 62%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ID / Identification | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Redistrict / Redistricted / Redistricting | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 38%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | Yes | 38%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 58%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 55%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | No | 54%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Karen / Bass | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | No | 45%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Spencer / Pratt | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 35%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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