Gavin Newsom: Keynote, May 19, 2026
Kalshi What will Gavin Newsom say during the CAP IDEAS Conference?
Markets
15 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | 60%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 52%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 50%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy | Yes | 44%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | Yes | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 39%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 38%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 35%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 33%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 54%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | No | 52%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNEWSOMMENTION-26MAY19 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP