Gavin Newsom: Hearing, Dec 13, 2025
Kalshi What will Gavin Newsom say during the DNC meeting?
Markets
14 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democracy | No | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crisis | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Climate Change | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Billionaire | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Midterm | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Republican | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Wildfire | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Clean Energy / Green | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNEWSOMMENTION-25DEC13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP