Gavin Newsom: Keynote, Jan 23, 2026
Kalshi What will Gavin Newsom say during his WEF Conversation?
Markets
14 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 69%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 66%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | Yes | 57%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | Yes | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Billionaire | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Clean Energy / Green / Climate | No | 35%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNEWSOMMENTION-26JAN23 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP