Gavin Newsom: Press conference, Mar 25, 2026
Kalshi What will Gavin Newsom say during his press conference?
Markets
12 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 67%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Health | Yes | 64%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 28%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 69%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | No | 47%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Enroll / Enrollment | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mentor / Mentorship | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Suicide | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 36%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNEWSOMMENTION-26MAR25 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP