Gavin Newsom: Remarks, Jan 17, 2026
Kalshi What will Gavin Newsom say during the announcement of new funding for homelessness and mental health?
Markets
12 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 61%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 58%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | Yes | 48%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Crisis | Yes | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Home / Housing | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Progress | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Republican | Yes | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Equality / Inequality | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Healthcare | No | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNEWSOMMENTION-26JAN17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP