Gavin Newsom: Remarks, May 14, 2026
Kalshi What will Gavin Newsom say during his revised budget plan?
Markets
15 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 70%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Health | Yes | 64%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Homeless / Homelessness | Yes | 56%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 52%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | Yes | 51%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 29%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 27%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 25%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | No | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Spencer / Pratt | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy | No | 37%n=17 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNEWSOMMENTION-26MAY14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP