Will “Constituent / Constituency” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Constituent / Constituency” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 4, 2026 (75%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3 of them.
- Last 10
- 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
Constituent / Constituency
- Probability
- 57% · n=4
- Settled
- 3/4 (75%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 3 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…place. That has had extraordinary consequences for freedom of expression, including for constituents of mine who are facing terror charges for peaceful protest. Will the…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…and I know that he is still very much loved by his constituents in Southend. The Prime Minister has had a busy few weeks: tying…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…that No. 10 North is as much at the service of her constituency as it is at the service of any constituency in the House.…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…but this comes after months of anguish for bereaved families, including my constituent Lisa Jones, whose husband Aaron was killed on 23 December 2024. Will…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
I know that the college in my hon. Friend’s constituency has made a bid to the post-16 and construction skills capacity fund to expand its…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2026 | Constituent / Constituency |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Constituent / Constituency | Polymarket | Yes |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Constituent / Constituency | Polymarket | No |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Constituent / Constituency | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often is “Constituent / Constituency” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Constituent / Constituency” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 4, 2026 (75%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026.
- What is the probability “Constituent / Constituency” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 57%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Constituent / Constituency’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/constituency-or-constituent (CC BY 4.0)
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