Will “Defense” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Defense” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 4, 2026 (75%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 58% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
Defense
- Probability
- 58% · n=4
- Settled
- 3/4 (75%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
PolymarketQuestions
- How often is “Defense” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Defense” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 4, 2026 (75%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026.
- What is the probability “Defense” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 58%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Defense’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/defense (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=defense · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP