Will “Russia / Ukraine” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Russia / Ukraine” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 30, 2026 (100%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 58% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3 of them.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
Russia / Ukraine
- Probability
- 58% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 3 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…we do not produce it, Britain and Europe will buy it from Russia. In July, the Prime Minister said: “The question isn’t whether Britain will…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…welcoming President Zelensky to Downing Street later this afternoon. Our support for Ukraine is unwavering. I have asked for further military and financial support to…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…3% by 2030. The threats are now. Argentina is threatening the Falklands—now. Russia is threatening us in the North sea—now. The Prime Minister did not…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…on defence—almost double. There is war in Europe. Yesterday, Germany confirmed that Russia was behind the attack on Leipzig airport. Tensions are so high that…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…last Friday. I thank the right hon. Lady for her comments about Ukraine. We have stood united on Ukraine in this House. We supported the…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2026 | Russia / Ukraine |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Russia / Ukraine | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often is “Russia / Ukraine” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Russia / Ukraine” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 30, 2026 (100%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026.
- What is the probability “Russia / Ukraine” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 58%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Russia / Ukraine’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/russia-or-ukraine (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=russia%20%2F%20ukraine · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP