Will “Condolences” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Condolences” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 30, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
Condolences
- Probability
- 46% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 1 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…60th anniversary of the Aberfan tragedy? We express our heartfelt and continued condolences to that community. Last week I asked the Prime Minister to stop…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…when I arrived in this House in 2001. We send our deepest condolences to David’s family. There is more work to be done on the…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…convictions, whose vivid and fearless character captured the public imagination. My heartfelt condolences go out to all her friends and loved ones. It is chilling…
…colleague and a wonderful gentleman. We will miss him deeply, and our condolences are with his wife, Julie, and his family. This morning, I had…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
I associate myself with the Prime Minister’s condolences and his birthday good wishes to the NHS. Everyone in my constituency of Surrey Heath wants a…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2026 | Condolences |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Condolences | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often is “Condolences” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Condolences” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 30, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026.
- What is the probability “Condolences” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Condolences’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/condolence (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=condolence · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP