# JD Vance (jd-vance) · presser 2026-02-26 · 39 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26FEB26 · P p:what-will-jd-vance-say-in-wisconsin-on-february-26 · as_of 2026-10-24T03:01:20Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-02-26 · tn/th last 2 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-01-08 (under 2 presser transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26FEB26 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Actions to Combat Fraud in Taxpayer-Funded Programs, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-jd-vance-say-in-wisconsin-on-february-26 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during the event on February 26, 2026.
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	1	K	17	15	0.88	YYYnYYYYYY	2	2	0.73	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	1	K	10	8	0.8	YnYYYYYYnY	2	2	0.63	hist	yes
California	california	1	K	3	3	1	YYY	2	1	0.62	hist	yes
Somali / Somalia / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	1	K	2	2	1	YY	2	1	0.58	hist	yes
Charlie / Kirk	charlie|kirk	1	P	2	2	1	YY	2	0	0.54	hist	no
Fraud	fraud	1	P	4	3	0.75	YYYn	2	1	0.53	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	1	K	9	6	0.67	YYYnYnYnY	2	2	0.53	hist	yes
Learing	learing	1	K	1	1	1	Y	2	0	0.52	hist	no
Refund	refund	1	P	1	1	1	Y	2	0	0.52	hist	yes
Trump	trump	1	K	1	1	1	Y	2	2	0.52	hist	yes
Election	election	1	K	5	3	0.6	YnnYY	2	0	0.51	hist	no
Ass	ass	1	P	2	1	0.5	nY	2	0	0.47	hist	no
Economy / Economic	economic|economy	1	K	0	0			2	1	0.45	hist	no
Crazy	crazy	1	P	0	0			2	1	0.4	hist	yes
Fake News	fake new	1	P	7	2	0.29	nnnYnYn	2	0	0.38	hist	no
Healthcare	healthcare	1	K	12	4	0.33	nYnYYnnnYn	2	1	0.37	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	P	2	0	0	nn	2	1	0.29	hist	no
Middle Class / Working Class	middle class|working class	1	K	7	1	0.14	nYnnnnn	2	0	0.27	hist	no
Iran / Nuclear	iran|nuclear	1	P	0	0			2	1	0.26	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	P	7	0	0	nnnnnnn	2	0	0.19	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	1	P	15	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	2	0	0.13	hist	no
Billion	billion	1	K	0	0			2	1	0.42	prior	yes
Covid / Pandemic	covid|pandemic	1	K	0	0			2	0	0.42	prior	no
Daycare / Childcare	childcare|daycare	1	K	0	0			2	1	0.42	prior	no
Hospice	hospice	1	K	0	0			2	0	0.42	prior	no
Minnesota / Minneapolis	minneapolis|minnesota	1	K	0	0			2	1	0.42	prior	yes
Pam / Bondi	bondi|pam	1	K	0	0			2	1	0.42	prior	no
Taxpayer	taxpayer	1	K	0	0			2	2	0.42	prior	yes
Border 4+ times	border#4	4	P	0	0			2	0	0.4	prior	yes
Chamber	chamber	1	P	0	0			2	0	0.4	prior	no
God / Hell 6+ times	god|hell#6	6	P	0	0			2	0	0.4	prior	no
ICE Agent	ice agent	1	P	0	0			2	1	0.4	prior	no
Illegal Alien 5+ times	illegal alien#5	5	P	0	0			2	1	0.4	prior	no
Job 7+ times	job#7	7	P	0	0			2	1	0.4	prior	yes
Joe Biden	joe biden	1	P	0	0			2	2	0.4	prior	yes
Prescription Drug	prescription drug	1	P	0	0			2	1	0.4	prior	yes
Six Seven	six seven	1	P	0	0			2	0	0.4	prior	no
State of the Union	state of the union	1	P	0	0			2	0	0.4	prior	yes
Tax 6+ times	tax#6	6	P	0	0			2	0	0.4	prior	yes