Will JD Vance say “Illegal Alien” 5+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Illegal Alien” 5+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Feb 26, 2026.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Illegal Alien 5+ times
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…an American trucker wondering why it is that the last administration facilitated illegal aliens driving semitrucks on our roads, or if you're an American who…
…fraud so that people who need food benefits can get them but illegal aliens and other fraudsters don't. We have over 1,500 subpoenas that the…
…happen. What they have done instead is to shut down the government because we won't give billions of dollars to healthcare funding for illegal aliens.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | Illegal Alien 5+ times |  Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Illegal Alien 5+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Illegal Alien” 5+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Feb 26, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Illegal Alien 5+ times” next time?
- 34%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Illegal Alien 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/illegal-alien-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=illegal%20alien%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP