Will JD Vance say “Billion”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Billion” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 26, 2026.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Last said
- Feb 25, 2026
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Billion
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 4 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…put a stop to that, having found, I think, north of $200 billion in fraud and we're to keep, of course, working on that in…
…the Iranians get all these benefits. You will hear things about $300 billion or $24 billion, or this or that number of money -- or…
…force where we have caught just in the last couple of months billions upon billions of dollars of fraud in our hospice system, in our…
Taxpayers have been ripped off to the tune of billions of dollars in this one state alone, and that is going to end and people…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…happen. What they have done instead is to shut down the government because we won't give billions of dollars to healthcare funding for illegal aliens.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | Billion |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Billion”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Billion” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 26, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Billion” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Billion’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/billion (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=billion · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP