Will JD Vance say “Refund”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Refund” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jan 22, 2026 (100%), most recently on Feb 26, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Refund
- Probability
- 55% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 0 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does JD Vance say “Refund”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Refund” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jan 22, 2026 (100%), most recently on Feb 26, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Refund” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Refund’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/refund (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=refund · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP