# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2026-04-30 (settled) · 27 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAY01 · as_of 2026-10-24T18:18:54Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-04-30 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAY01 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before May 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	68	45	0.66	nYYnnYnnnY	1	0	0.78	hist	0	0	yes	1
Pelosi	pelosi	8	8	1	YYYYYYYY	1	0	0.77	hist	0	0	no	1
Trump Derangement Syndrome	trump derangement syndrome	10	6	0.6	nnYYYYYYnn	1	0	0.71	hist	0	0	yes	1
Genius	genius	13	10	0.77	nYnnYYYYYY	1	1	0.68	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	53	33	0.62	YYYYnYYnYY	1	0	0.67	hist	0	0	yes	1
Autism	autism	18	9	0.5	YnYYYYnYnn	1	0	0.66	hist	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	38	25	0.66	nYYYYYYYnY	1	0	0.64	hist	0	0	yes	1
Gulf of America	gulf of america	17	10	0.59	nnnnnYYYYn	1	1	0.64	hist	0	0	yes	1
Nine War / Ninth War	nine war|ninth war	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.6	hist	0	0	yes	1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	18	11	0.61	nYYYnYnYnY	1	1	0.6	hist	0	0	yes	1
Make Iran Great Again	make iran great again	2	1	0.5	nY	1	0	0.6	hist	0	0	no	1
UFC	ufc	21	9	0.43	nnnYYYnnnn	1	0	0.56	hist	0	0	yes	1
Moon	moon	7	3	0.43	nnYnnYY	1	1	0.54	hist	0	0	yes	1
Greenland	greenland	44	17	0.39	nnnYnnnnYn	1	1	0.54	hist	0	0	yes	1
DEI / Woke	dei|woke	14	5	0.36	nnYYnnnnYn	1	1	0.52	hist	0	0	yes	1
Epstein Island	epstein island	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.52	hist	0	0	no	1
Moscow	moscow	10	4	0.4	nYYnYnnYnn	1	0	0.51	hist	0	0	no	1
Dead Country	dead country	10	3	0.3	YnYnnYnnnn	1	0	0.5	hist	0	0	yes	1
Goat	goat	0	0			1	0	0.47	hist	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	108	27	0.25	nnnnYnYnnY	1	0	0.46	hist	0	0	yes	1
Turning Point	turning point	8	4	0.5	YYYYnnnn	1	0	0.45	hist	0	0	yes	1
Third Term	third term	8	2	0.25	YnnnnYnn	1	0	0.44	hist	0	0	no	1
Fat shot / Ozempic	fat shot|ozempic	22	7	0.32	nnnnYYYnnn	1	0	0.41	hist	0	0	yes	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	350	37	0.11	nnnnYnnnnn	1	0	0.35	hist	0	0	yes	1
Stimulus	stimulus	7	0	0	nnnnnnn	1	0	0.35	hist	0	0	no	1
Discombobulator	discombobulator	14	2	0.14	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.29	hist	0	0	no	1
UFO / UAP	uap|ufo	2	1	0.5	nY	1	0	0.56	prior	0	0	yes	1