Will Donald Trump say “Goat”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Goat” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 30, 2026 (20%), most recently on May 31, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Goat
- Probability
- 40% · n=5
- Settled
- 1/5 (20%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…one. You're going to be in number one place. So when you go at that, you're going to get out and vote because to me…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Goat |  Polymarket | No | 2 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Goat |  Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (30 of 40 known appearances transcribed)) |
| May 31, 2026 | Goat | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 31, 2026 | Goat | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Goat | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Goat”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Goat” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 30, 2026 (20%), most recently on May 31, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Goat” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Goat’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/goat (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=goat · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP