# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2026-02-01 (settled) · 25 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26FEB01 · as_of 2026-10-25T02:57:37Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-02-01 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26FEB01 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after 11am ET January 1st, 2026 and before Feb 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 1 of 1 known appearance transcribed (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	41	28	0.68	YnYYYnYYYY	1	1	0.72	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	36	21	0.58	YYYnnnnYnn	1	0	0.72	hist	0	0	yes		1
Pelosi	pelosi	4	4	1	YYYY	1	0	0.68	hist	0	0	yes		1
Turning Point	turning point	4	4	1	YYYY	1	0	0.63	hist	0	0	no		1
Trump Derangement Syndrome	trump derangement syndrome	6	4	0.67	nnYYYY	1	0	0.63	hist	0	0	yes		1
Gulf of America	gulf of america	5	4	0.8	YYYYn	1	1	0.61	hist	3	3	yes	1	
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	22	13	0.59	nYYYYnnnYY	1	0	0.58	hist	0	0	yes		1
TrumpRX / TrumpRX.gov	trumprx|trumprxgov	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.54	hist	0	0	yes		1
UFC	ufc	9	5	0.56	nYYnnnYYY	1	0	0.53	hist	0	0	yes		1
DEI / Woke	dei|woke	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	1	1	0.53	hist	4	4	yes	1	
Windmill	windmill	12	6	0.5	nYYnYYnnnY	1	1	0.52	hist	2	2	yes	1	
Newscum	newscum	32	17	0.53	nnnnYYYYYY	1	0	0.49	hist	0	0	yes		1
Moscow	moscow	7	3	0.43	nYYnYnn	1	0	0.49	hist	0	0	yes		1
Autism	autism	8	3	0.38	YYnnnnYn	1	0	0.47	hist	0	0	yes		1
Transgender	transgender	58	28	0.48	nnnYYYnYYn	1	1	0.46	hist	3	3	yes	1	
Greenland	greenland	35	14	0.4	YYYnYnnnnn	1	1	0.44	hist	8	14	yes	1	
Nine War	nine war	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.37	hist	0	0	no		1
Third Term	third term	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	1	0	0.35	hist	0	0	no		1
Stimulus	stimulus	4	0	0	nnnn	1	0	0.34	hist	0	0	no		1
Epstein	epstein	58	11	0.19	nnnYYYnnnn	1	0	0.32	hist	0	0	yes		1
Taylor Swift	taylor swift	8	0	0	nnnnnnnn	1	0	0.3	hist	0	0	no		1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	252	24	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.27	hist	0	0	yes		1
Fat shot / Ozempic	fat shot|ozempic	16	4	0.25	Ynnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.26	hist	0	0	yes		1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	23	3	0.13	nnnYYnnnnn	1	0	0.24	hist	0	0	no		1
Nick Shirley	nick shirley	0	0			1	0	0.51	prior	0	0	no		1