Will Donald Trump say “Nick Shirley”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Nick Shirley” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 1, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Nick Shirley
- Probability
- 53% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…give him a big hug today. He's done an amazing job -- Nick Shirley. So, thank you very much. What a job you've done as…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Nick Shirley |  Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Nick Shirley | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (1 of 1 known appearance transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Nick Shirley”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Nick Shirley” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 1, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Nick Shirley” next time?
- 53%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Nick Shirley’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/nick-shirley (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=nick%20shirley · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP