# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2026-03-31 (settled) · 27 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26APR01 · as_of 2026-10-24T03:36:44Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-31 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26APR01 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Apr 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Pelosi	pelosi	7	7	1	YYYYYYY	1	0	0.76	hist	0	0	yes	1
Trump Derangement Syndrome	trump derangement syndrome	8	6	0.75	nnYYYYYY	1	0	0.74	hist	0	0	no	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	53	36	0.68	nYYYYYYYYn	1	0	0.73	hist	0	0	yes	1
Transgender	transgender	92	53	0.58	YYnYYYYYnn	1	1	0.73	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	46	27	0.59	YYYYnnYYYn	1	0	0.65	hist	0	0	yes	1
Gulf of America	gulf of america	13	7	0.54	YnYYnnnnnY	1	1	0.64	hist	0	0	yes	1
Windmill	windmill	29	16	0.55	YYYYYYnnnn	1	1	0.61	hist	0	0	yes	1
DEI / Woke	dei|woke	12	4	0.33	nnnnYYnnnn	1	1	0.59	hist	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	33	21	0.64	YYYnnnYYYY	1	0	0.58	hist	0	0	yes	1
Moscow	moscow	9	4	0.44	nYYnYnnYn	1	0	0.58	hist	0	0	no	1
Genius	genius	9	6	0.67	YYYnYnnYY	1	1	0.57	hist	0	0	yes	1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	13	8	0.62	YYYnnnYYnY	1	1	0.57	hist	0	0	yes	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	25	14	0.56	YYYnnnYYYY	1	0	0.56	hist	0	0	yes	1
UFC	ufc	16	8	0.5	YYYYnnnnYY	1	0	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1
Greenland	greenland	42	16	0.38	nnnnnYnnnn	1	1	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1
Discombobulator	discombobulator	9	2	0.22	YYnnnnnnn	1	0	0.52	hist	0	0	no	1
Turning Point	turning point	7	4	0.57	YYYYnnn	1	0	0.51	hist	0	0	no	1
Autism	autism	12	6	0.5	nnnnYnYnYY	1	0	0.51	hist	0	0	yes	1
Make Iran Great Again	make iran great again	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.51	hist	0	0	yes	1
Epstein Island	epstein island	0	0			1	0	0.5	hist	0	0	no	1
Third Term	third term	6	2	0.33	YnnnnY	1	0	0.46	hist	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	99	23	0.23	YnnYnnnYnn	1	0	0.44	hist	0	0	yes	1
Fat shot / Ozempic	fat shot|ozempic	20	7	0.35	nnnnnnYYYn	1	0	0.41	hist	0	0	no	1
Stimulus	stimulus	6	0	0	nnnnnn	1	0	0.37	hist	0	0	no	1
Nine War	nine war	5	0	0	nnnnn	1	0	0.34	hist	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	326	33	0.1	nnnnnnnYYY	1	0	0.32	hist	0	0	yes	1
UFO / UAP	uap|ufo	0	0			1	0	0.56	prior	0	0	no	1