Will Donald Trump say “Negotiate / Negotiation”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Negotiate / Negotiation” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 22, 2025 (50%), most recently on Mar 26, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Negotiate / Negotiation
- Probability
- 46% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…is gone. Some of number three, and now I have nobody to negotiate with. The My biggest problem, nobody wants to be president of Iran.…
Upon taking office last year, I immediately opened negotiations with Iran and offered them full economic cooperation in exchange for ending their nuclear program and…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | Negotiate / Negotiation |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Negotiate / Negotiation | Kalshi | No |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Negotiate / Negotiation | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Negotiate / Negotiation | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Negotiate / Negotiation”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Negotiate / Negotiation” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 22, 2025 (50%), most recently on Mar 26, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Negotiate / Negotiation” next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Negotiate / Negotiation’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/negotiate-or-negotiation (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=negotiate%20%2F%20negotiation · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP