# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-10-22 · 22 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25OCT22 · as_of 2026-10-24T17:45:42Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-22 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25OCT22 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Diwali Celebration on October 21st, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	res
Biden	biden	75	62	0.83	YYYYYYYYYn	0.81	yes
Tariff	tariff	42	34	0.81	nnYYYYYYYY	0.8	yes
China	china	42	35	0.83	YYYnYYYnYY	0.73	yes
Democrat	democrat	21	15	0.71	YYYYnYnYYn	0.63	yes
Hottest	hottest	31	19	0.61	YYYnnYnnnY	0.62	yes
Border	border	39	26	0.67	YYYYYnYYnn	0.61	yes
India	india	10	8	0.8	YnYYYYYYYn	0.58	yes
Energy	energy	18	12	0.67	YYYYYnnYYn	0.58	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	6	5	0.83	YYYYYn	0.55	no
Tax	tax	8	6	0.75	nYYYYYnY	0.54	yes
Russia	russia	35	21	0.6	YYnnnnYYYY	0.54	yes
Trillion	trillion	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.52	yes
Ukraine	ukraine	25	15	0.6	nYnnnnYnYY	0.5	yes
Modi	modi	1	1	1	Y	0.48	yes
Hindu / Hinduism	hindu|hinduism	2	1	0.5	nY	0.47	yes
Kash / Patel	kash|patel	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.45	yes
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	24	11	0.46	nYnnnnnnnn	0.45	no
Putin	putin	44	28	0.64	nnnYnnnnnY	0.42	yes
Water	water	10	4	0.4	YnnYnnYYnn	0.42	no
Negotiate / Negotiation	negotiate|negotiation	0	0			0.38	yes
Schumer	schumer	9	3	0.33	nYnYYnnnn	0.37	yes
Oil	oil	20	6	0.3	nYYnnnnnYY	0.29	yes