Will Donald Trump say “Constitution”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Constitution” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 21, 2025 (50%), most recently on Sep 10, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 58% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Constitution
- Probability
- 58% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…is run around shooting each other. Then she comes over here. The constitution gives me absolute right to freedom of speech. She's telling us about…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Constitution |  Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Constitution |  Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Constitution | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Constitution | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Constitution”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Constitution” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 21, 2025 (50%), most recently on Sep 10, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Constitution” next time?
- 58%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Constitution’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/constitution (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=constitution · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP